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], [ -5.1425, 0.00728 ], [ -4.4575, 0.00828 ], [ -3.7724, 0.009418 ], [ -3.0874, 0.010709 ], [ -2.4023, 0.012176 ], [ -1.7173, 0.01384 ], [ -1.0323, 0.015729 ], [ -0.3472, 0.017871 ], [ 0.3378, 0.020298 ], [ 1.0229, 0.023047 ], [ 1.7079, 0.026159 ], [ 2.393, 0.029678 ], [ 3.078, 0.033654 ], [ 3.763, 0.038142 ], [ 4.4481, 0.043201 ], [ 5.1331, 0.048898 ], [ 5.8182, 0.055302 ], [ 6.5032, 0.062489 ] ], "fit": { "type": "logistic on binned training-split counts", "a": -3.9407481733184286, "b": 0.18952476047247507 } }, "risk_bands": [ { "name": "Typical", "max_probability": 0.015474 }, { "name": "Elevated", "max_probability": 0.030948 }, { "name": "High", "max_probability": 1.0 } ], "reference": { "cohort_base_rate": 0.010316 }, "provenance": { "data": "NIH All of Us Research Program, Registered Tier Dataset v9 (CDR R2025Q4R6)", "method": "nb_eb: fit outside the Researcher Workbench from dissemination-compliant summary counts (every released cell above 20, rounded to 10); no participant-level data or participant-trained model left Workbench", "open_data": [ "CDC/NCHS Household Pulse Survey, Post-COVID Conditions (gsea-w83j)", "CMS Medicare Physician & Other Practitioners by Geography and Service, CY2024", "NLM RxNorm, LOINC, ICD-10-CM vocabularies" ], "validation_split_evaluation": { "auroc": 0.6736, "auprc": 0.0282, "held_out_people": "4680", "held_out_positives": "50", "participant_level_comparators": { "M2_elastic_net_logistic": 0.6804, "M4_pu_bagging": 0.6727 }, "note": "random 20% validation split (Task 36, seed 20260929); held-out-site AUROC of the frozen 41-feature pipeline: 0.659 (95% CI 0.576-0.722), results/aggregate/36/t17_site_performance.csv" }, "features_note": "Condition features use ICD-10-CM codes from both condition_occurrence and observation for every predictor (Task 35; results/aggregate/35/t35_guard_summary.csv)" }, "statement": "Research decision support. Surfaces chart patterns for clinician review. Not a diagnosis." }